Kamala Harris risks losing Pennsylvania over Biden’s economic mistakes, poll reveals

Voters blame the president’s policies for causing high cost of living, putting his heir in a tight spot in key swing state

Kamala Harris risks losing Pennsylvania because of Joe Biden’s economic policies, a new poll for The Telegraph reveals.
A survey of voters in the key swing state, taken earlier this week, shows Donald Trump ahead of Ms Harris by two points, amid widespread concerns about the economy.
While more voters said they generally agreed with “the Democratic position” on the economy, Mr Biden’s policies are the factor most blamed for the high cost of living, and Trump is trusted more than Ms Harris to slow inflation and boost economic growth.
Ms Harris’s campaign has struggled to convince voters in battleground states that after almost four years in office she has a better plan on the cost of living than Trump.
Although inflation has now fallen to 2.4 per cent, according to the government’s latest statistical release, high prices have been “baked in” since a peak of 9.1 per cent in June 2022.
The data, collected for The Telegraph by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, who polled 794 people, shows that Mr Biden’s economic record is harming Ms Harris’s campaign.
Pennsylvania is one of the most crucial swing states, and would offer both candidates a pathway to the 270 electoral college votes needed to secure the White House.
Like other battleground states, it has been hit hard by inflation. The survey data suggest concerns about the economy are driving voters’ choices more than any other issue.
Half of voters said their personal finances had worsened in the last year, and a majority said the most important question they would ask themselves on polling day was: “Am I better off today financially than I was four years ago?”
Asked which issue was the most important in determining which way to vote, the largest group of voters (45 per cent) said it was the economy. The second largest group (19 per cent) said abortion.
The survey reveals a preference for Democratic policies on the economy overall among Pennsylvania voters, with 50 per cent reporting that they preferred “the Democratic position” on economic issues. Forty-six per cent said they preferred “the Republican position”.
However, when asked about Ms Harris and Trump specifically, more voters said they preferred the Republican’s policies.
Trump led Ms Harris on the economy, tackling inflation, immigration, crime and defence policy, while she led on abortion, healthcare, the environment and the rule of law.
Voters’ distrust of Ms Harris’s economic policies appears to be caused by opposition to the Biden administration, which she has served for almost four years.
Asked about the biggest factor causing the high cost of living, the largest group of voters (37 per cent) said Joe Biden’s policies, while almost half (48 per cent) said they did not think prices would have risen as much if Donald Trump was in office. Thirty-seven per cent said they thought prices would have risen just as much under a Trump presidency.
The figures paint a concerning picture for Ms Harris ahead of election day on Nov 5, when most voters say they will cast their ballot based on economic concerns.
However, voters in Pennsylvania also said they blamed “price gouging” by corporations for high prices, which Ms Harris has vowed to ban in federal law if she wins power.
While 74 per cent of voters said Mr Biden’s policies were at least partly to blame for inflation, 90 per cent said the same for corporations. When asked about price rises, the most common complaint was about groceries, which more than half of respondents said they had been forced to cut back on in the last four years.
Pennsylvania is one of seven swing states in this year’s election, and has been considered a bellwether for decades.
The candidate who wins in Pennsylvania in November is likely to win the presidential election. Pennsylvania has voted against the overall national result just ten times in its history, picking winners in 83 per cent of elections.
Pennsylvania has the largest number of electoral college delegates of any swing state, sending 19 electors.
Its status has made it a focus for pollsters during election campaigns. A separate poll for The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday found Ms Harris five points ahead of Trump in the state.
Mr Biden’s economic agenda has been driven by mass investment in domestic green energy and semiconductor manufacturing and infrastructure in a federal spending package known colloquially as “Bidenomics”.
He has also positioned himself as pro-union, and has backed staff in conflict with their firms in several major employment disputes.
However, he has been criticised for high rates of government spending and high inflation, which peaked after the Covid-19 pandemic at 9.1 per cent in June 2022. Tax rates have increased for higher earners, and Mr Biden has called for further levies targeted at the super-rich.
He has also resisted striking trade deals with other countries and the EU, and has imposed tariffs on some Chinese imports.
Trump has proposed a series of tax cuts, including a reduction in corporation tax, and an end to taxes paid on tips and overtime pay.
He would impose tariffs of 20 per cent on all imports, and 60 per cent on imports from China.
He has also pledged a reduction in government spending, including on military aid to Ukraine.